Monday, September 7, 2009

I still like SIRI

I still like sirius xm radio (SIRI). I think it will top the dollar mark, and avoid delisting of Nasdeq. Once it tops one dollar per share and they start having positive numbers, I think this one will really take off. With all of the new car contracts that SIRI has acquired and the sales of the units in stores the revenues will continue to increase. You can even listen to sirius xm on satallite TV, it just seems to be everywhere. And being the one main provider, they have the market cornered.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

I wouldn't buy gold right now

I think gold has seen most of the good times pass already. It has been continually climbing, and my personal opinion is that it has hit the top end. With stocks in an excellent position to rise dramatically, I think investors in gold will look to a more profitable option (like mid and large cap stocks). I believe that fear in the volitility of stocks has persuaded many investors to look at gold, now that the stock market is on the rise, the demand for gold has a good chance to decline. It would still make a good choice for diversification because you never know for sure what is going to happen in the market, but I'm not buying at this point.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Mortgage giants struggle a year after takeover

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A year after the near-collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants remain dependent on the government for survival and there is no end in sight.


The companies, created by the government to ensure the availability of home loans, have tapped about $96 billion in government aid since they were seized a year ago this weekend. Without that money, the firms could have gone broke, leaving millions of people unable to get a mortgage.

Many questions remain about Fannie and Freddie's future, but several things are clear: The companies are unlikely to return to their former power and influence, the bailout is sure to cost taxpayers even more money and the government will have a big role in the U.S. mortgage market for years to come.

Fannie Mae was created in 1938 in the aftermath of the Great Depression. It was privatized 30 years later to limit budget deficits during the Vietnam War. In 1970, the government formed its sibling and competitor Freddie Mac.

The companies boomed over the past decade, buying mortgages from lenders, pooling them into bonds and selling them to investors. But critics called them unnecessary, arguing that Wall Street could support the mortgage market itself.

That argument has faded in the wreckage of the failed loans that led to the housing bust. Investors have fled any mortgage investment that doesn't have the government standing behind it.

"No longer is anyone arguing that the private sector can handle this on its own," said Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at Washington Research Group.

The government stepped in to take control of the two companies on the weekend of Sept. 6, after they were unable to raise money to cover soaring losses and their stock prices plunged.

A year later, the government controls nearly 80 percent of each company, and their problems are growing as defaults and foreclosures continue to skyrocket.

The percentage of homeowners who have missed at least three months of payments is normally under 1 percent for both companies. Now it's nearly 4 percent for Fannie and 3 percent for Freddie.

Fannie had nearly $171 billion in troubled loans as of June and had set aside $55 billion to cover those losses, while Freddie had nearly $78 billion in troubled loans and reserves of only $25 billion.

"It's much worse than anybody thought," said Paul Miller, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets.

It could be another year before the final taxpayer tab for Fannie and Freddie is known, and that outcome will depend on when delinquencies and foreclosures finally crest.

Barclays Capital predicts the companies will need anywhere from $160 billion to $200 billion out of a potential $400 billion lifeline, which the Obama administration expanded from the original $200 billion set last fall. Most analysts don't expect the money to be returned anytime soon, if at all.

"What will ultimately end up happening," said Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha, "is that the U.S. taxpayer swallows the bill."

Despite federal control, Fannie and Freddie have recently surged on Wall Street. The companies said Friday that they now comply with New York Stock Exchange requirement for an average closing price of $1 a share or more. But most analysts still say the companies' stocks will be worthless in the long term.

The Obama administration doesn't expect to announce its plans for the two companies until early next year, but powerful interest groups aren't waiting until then. The Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday offered a detailed plan to replace Fannie and Freddie with several federally-regulated private companies.

That proposal still retained a big government role, giving those companies the ability to issue mortgage bonds formally guaranteed by the federal government.

In the meantime, both Fannie and Freddie have been drafted to implement the Obama administration's effort to attack the foreclosure crisis. Freddie Mac now has about 600 workers either modifying loans or monitoring compliance with the program's rules. Fannie Mae said it has added hundreds of employees to work on foreclosure prevention efforts.

The early results have been disappointing. For example, while Fannie or Freddie refinanced 2.9 million loans from January through July, only about 60,000 were taking advantage of an Obama administration plan to help "underwater" borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth.

At the same time, nearly 70 percent of U.S. mortgages made in the first half of this year went through Fannie or Freddie, up from 62 percent last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication. That's a big change from three years ago, when the risky lending market was still alive and Fannie and Freddie's share was down to 33 percent.

"We've been the mortgage market," said John Koskinen, Freddie Mac's chairman. "Without that financing availability, people would not have been able to get a mortgage."

Fannie and Freddie don't directly make loans, but they exert enormous influence over the industry by issuing detailed standards for the loans they will purchase. Lenders must feed their borrowers into Fannie and Freddie's computer systems, which evaluate borrowers based on their credit scores and the size of their down payment.

Both companies, facing huge losses, have kept those standards tight, frustrating many. Eric Delgado, a mortgage broker in Rockville, Maryland, says there's zero flexibility with either company. Either borrowers qualify or they don't. No arguing. No excuses.

But some in the industry say the restrictions are long overdue after several years of lending excesses.

"You needed to bring some reality to the market," said Michael Moskowitz, chief executive of Equity Now, a New York-based mortgage lender, which does about 80 percent of its business with Fannie and Freddie.

Fannie Mae CEO Michael Williams declined an interview request, but said in an e-mailed statement that "it is not enough to help a borrower own a home. We must also help ensure that they will be able to stay in the home over the long term."

By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
On Friday September 4, 2009, 6:06 pm EDT

Source: Yahoo finance

Bonds slip after jobs data

Government debt prices ease after employers cut 216,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 276,000 lost in July.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Treasurys slipped Friday after data showed fewer-than-expected job losses in August, dimming the allure of safe-haven government bonds.

U.S. employers cut 216,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 276,000 lost in July or the 225,000 expected by economists. The data gave some cheer to investors betting that the economy is on the road to recovery from the worst recession in decades.

Average hourly earnings also jumped, but the encouragement was tempered by the fact that the unemployment rate rose much more than expected to its highest level in 26 years, which initially caused bonds to cut their losses.

"The Treasury market may have rallied initially on this payrolls report because the unemployment rate was 0.2% higher than expected, -- a pretty big miss there," said Suvrat Prakash, U.S. interest rate strategist with BNP Paribas in New York.

But he noted that the consensus was for the unemployment rate to rise anyway, adding: "Maybe what we should take out of this is the fact that wage earnings were up and the actual level of payrolls itself was better than expected."

The 30-year bond was last down 23/32 in price, yielding 4.20%. It was briefly off more than one point in price.

The benchmark 10-year note fell 8/32, yielding 3.38% versus Thursday's close of 3.35%.

U.S. stocks posted modest gains, making riskier assets appear more attractive compared with more conservative investments such as government bonds.

Another near-term negative for Treasurys was next week's bond auction slate, which will bring $70 billion worth of debt to the market.

"The market has to take down the supply," said Prakash. "Overall demand, while it has been healthy, it's healthy at the right price, so you tend to see yields drift higher into auctions."

New life?
Ultimately, though, the mixed nature of the jobs report -- the biggest economic release of the month -- may prove supportive for bonds, which were still on track for their fourth week of gains despite Friday's mild retreat.

Treasurys have not had a winning streak like this since late last year, when credit markets melted down in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse.

The situation now appears less dire, but bonds are rallying on the Federal Reserve's assurances that it will not begin raising interest rates until the economy is on firmer footing.

High unemployment is likely to encourage bond investors who do not believe the Fed will raise interest rates any time soon since inflation is unlikely to take off when consumers fear for their jobs and seek economic security.

"Despite the recent improving trend in overall economic data, the high unemployment rate is still not going to sit well with most investors," said Lawrence Glazer, managing partner of Mayflower Advisors in Boston.

"These data may breathe new life into Treasurys."

Source: money.cnn.com

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Betting on a smokey recovery

Thomas Lee of J.P. Morgan says a U.S. economic rebound could get a little dirty for investors who want to make money.


NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When looking for stocks that will rise out of the current recession, Thomas Lee, J.P. Morgan's chief U.S. equities strategist and one of Wall Street's most bullish prognosticators, advises clients to buy for a "smoke stack recovery."

Lee, who in January predicted the S&P 500 index (SPX) to finish at 1,100 by year-end, says the combination of quick gross domestic product recovery and low industrial growth through the recession should lead to bigger gains in sectors like industrials, material makers and energy firms.

"This is going to be a very smoke stackey recovery," says Lee. He says investors should buy "companies that feed industrial production."

Lee's call is rooted in J.P. Morgan's bullish expectations of a strong U.S. and global recovery. The bank's economic research team expects U.S. GDP will recover to 2007 levels by the end of 2010. "[I]t now looks likely that the coming four quarters will see GDP gains that rival the strongest global performance of the past two decades," its worldwide research team recently wrote.

Companies that delayed new projects and countries that put off structural upgrades during the recession, Lee contends, will put money toward industrial production to keep up with increased spending and GDP growth.

Businesses are also better positioned to spend. As Lee points out, S&P 500 companies hoarded cash and cut expenses in the downturn. Nine out of 10 sectors in the index have lower expenses levels than they did in 2007. (The only exception is health care.)

And corporate borrowing costs have dramatically fallen. "Today, high-grade issuers are borrowing at levels even lower than they could in 2005," Lee says. "There are a lot of things that have positioned companies now in 2010 for much better earnings if the economy starts to recover."

How can investors buy into an industrial recovery? First, Lee recommends small and midcap stocks which rise fastest during a recovery. The Russell 2,000 index of smallcaps for example, has returned 63% since its March 9th low, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 42% since then.

J.P. Morgan Securities recently released its small and midcap "Money List" -- a group of recommended stocks based on risk/reward, industries, and balance sheets. Lee thinks the following shares should benefit from a smoke stack recovery:

Bway Holding Company (BWY)

The $1-billion company makes containers: metal paint cans, aerosol cans and plastic pails. Lee likes the stock because it trades at one of the group's cheapest price/earnings to growth ratios. It was 2.39 in the June quarter. Bway also raised its 2009 earnings expectations by 4% to $124 million in August as costs cuts worked amid declining sales.

Century Aluminum (CENX)

The $2-billion aluminum maker supplies four main customers for nearly 75% of its sales: Rio Tinto Alcan (the aluminum unit of Rio Tinto), Southwire, BHP Billiton, and Glencore International. The value of its stock has risen nine-fold since March. But Lee still sees opportunity as a strong U.S. recovery will hasten the need for materials.

Terex (TEX, Fortune 500)

Terex cranes and construction equipment can been seen at almost any construction site. The $9.9 billion manufacturer makes cement mixing trucks and surface mining equipment and is the world's No. 3 construction equipment maker. Terex said this summer that sales cold drop 40% to 45% this year amid the recession, but J.P. Morgan expects the stock to bounce back.

Lee cautions that every recovery slowly works its way through different economic sectors. Even so, he recommends retail investors buy strong operators before Wall Street analysts begin to turn bullish and upgrade their stocks. He notes that the number of "buy" ratings on S&P 500 companies are at their lowest level since 2003. "For a retail investor, that's important, Lee says. "They might anticipate [a recovery]."

First Published: September 3, 2009: 1:02 PM ET

Source: money.cnn.com

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

'Fast Money' Recap: Gold Fever

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The markets remained in the red Wednesday in a trading session that was straining for direction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 29.93, or 0.32%, to 9280.67, and the S&P 500 fell 3.29, or 0.33%, to 994.75. The Nasdaq slipped 1.82, or 0.09%, to 1967.07.

As it did with Tuesday's favorable manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management, the market's reaction was muted to the Fed's Open Market Committee's comments indicating an economy on the mend.
Joe Terranova said on CNBC's "Fast Money" TV show that there were a lot of trading opportunities in the market today, especially on the resource side where several stocks had intra-day reversals . For example, he noted Potash(POT Quote) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX Quote).

For a breakout of some stocks from a recent "Fast Money" TV show, check out Dan Fitzpatrick's "3 Stocks I Saw on TV."

Guy Adami said there was nothing in today's "benign" tape that would change his opinion that the market will continue to head down.
Adami said that although he thinks highly of Goldman Sachs(GS Quote), it, too, wouldn't be spared if the market sinks.
Melissa Lee, the moderator of the show, shifted the discussion to gold, which broke out today and is only $20 below the $1,000 level. "Everybody but myself has been bullish on it. Do I look as stupid as Paris Hilton taking the SATs? Sorry Paris if you're watching," said Adami.
Adami said he was concerned with gold's "exaggerated move" today and advised investors to "remember the market we're in."

Source: thestreet.com

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Duke Energy (DUK)

Look at Duke Energy [DUK]. This utility, which is a type of stock that works during a recession, yields about 5.9%, and Duke not only has been paying its dividend consistently for 82 years but also increased the payout this year. (Cramer recommends looking for companies with a history of raising their dividends.) Investors who buy Duke at its current yield level and reinvest the dividends will double their money after 12 years, again even if the stock stays flat.

Source: stockpickr